First, comparison of the theories of the above two methods, which includes comparative study of theoretical bases, data requirement and processing, model stability and applicability, forecasting accuracy and length. 本文首先在理论上将两种预测模型进行了比较,对两种预测方法在建模的理论基础、数据要求与处理、模型稳定性与适用性、预测精度与长度等方面进行了比较与探讨。